When we embarked on publishing The Coxe Strategy Journal, a core thesis of our work was that geopolitics was becoming a major investment theme in which truth would emerge over months and years.
In this issue before we take a break from publishing for summer, we cover many of those themes as they evolve. We hope we have given you lots to think in about your investment planning.
So far this year, equity markets have been either bruised—most of the equity groups—or battered—big banks’ stocks, particularly in Europe. Six weeks do not a winter make, let alone a year, but the broad-based selling confirms our view that investors have finally—correctly—concluded that China has displaced the USA in the Atlas seat. Shanghai’s 19% plunge has nearly trebled the S&P’s pullback. Talk of a global recession is intensifying.
When the god of global progress shrugs, the world trembles.
In just three months, Russia has leapt from near-pariah status to Great Power status, the absolutely necessary power to defeat ISIS.
This month we discuss how Vladimir Putin outfoxed the Europeans and Barack Obama, and the implications for investors.
Until now, China’s stock markets were widely considered to be unconsolidated subsidiaries of the Chinese Communist Party. Then came The Glums of August as panic spread across the world.
Download: Coxe Strategy Journal: June 2015 This issue of The Journal aims to explain to clients the risks and rewards from what we believe is an unfolding major bond bear market—with specific discussions of how to manage bond portfolios. We also discuss how companies should plan and restructure their bond liabilities. We undertake this project because of our […]
Download: Coxe Strategy Journal: May 2015 Some day later in this century, a class studying “The Decline and Fall of Capitalism” will hear that within just 15 years, investors ran like rats in Hamelin following the Pied Piper into (1) technology stocks trading at 150-times earnings, (2) investment packages containing complex collections of mortgages on […]
Download: Coxe Strategy Journal: April 2015 This month we consider the implications of a nuclear deal with Iran in the context of the unfolding chaos in the Mideast. Until last month, the Mideast was the scene of two major wars: (1) the Syrian civil war, in which a Shia regime backed by Iran was fighting […]
Download: Coxe Strategy Journal: January 2015 As we appraise the World of 2015, this is the second time in history the policy decisions of these two elite groups will be crucial to how the global economy evolves. (The last time was 1974.) The oil industry has lost the warm fuzziness of its Saudi security blanket and […]
That High Yield is so big and so illiquid at a time the Treasury Ten-Year yields are a mere 2.4%, suggests where the soft underbelly of the yield curve will be found when the sword of bond panic strikes…